Speed

The most important question in placing your wager is this: Which horse can run the fastest?
The final times of horses’ performances generally reflect their relative ability. A thoroughbred who regularly runs six furlongs in 1:11 is better than one who runs in 1:12. This seemingly straightforward factor becomes complex when factoring in racing surfaces which vary from day to day and from track to track.
A horse is assigned a Beyer Speed Figure for every one of his races: The higher the number, the better. Great champions occasionally run in the 120s: Cigar’s best performance was a 121.

A bettor who blindly played the horse with the highest Beyer Speed Figure in his most recent race – providing he had an edge over three points over the next-best horses – would win his wager about 29 percent of the time. The most reliable horses are ones whose last two or three figures are superior to those their opposition.
Some handicappers try to divine the future by looking for patterns in horses’ previous figures. In a study for his book “Beyer on Speed,” Andrew Beyer found that when a horse has run three ascending numbers – such as 65, 70, 75 – his next figure will decline 71 percent of the time. So the past performance becomes only one piece of the puzzle.
As important as the figures are, a player shouldn’t become slavish to them and must understand that the dynamics of a race will affect how fast a horse runs. There are many variables in horseracing, but an understanding of speed figures is essential for someone placing the winning wager.


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