Spotting the Winners

The main requirement in predicting the winner of most horse- races, and most wagers, is an understanding of four basic handicapping principles – condition, class, speed and pace.
Most winners are in relatively sound physical condition, and racing at an appropriate class level. Usually they will have run as fast as their competition, and the probable pace of the race suits their style.

Determining condition can be as simple as evaluating a horse’s recent races. Has the horse been finishing in the top half of the field? If he is a front-runner, has he been showing speed? If he is a late runner, has he been gaining ground on the leaders?

For horses returning from layoffs of a month or more, or who have never raced, workout patterns are the key to condition. Are the workouts regularly spaced, every five to eight days? Are they increasing in length?

Class is the next point of evaluation – is the horse running at a level where he previously has been competitive? Or, has he recently improved, enough to take his game to a higher level? Class is closely linked to current condition, and sharp horses frequently move up the ladder.

The next point of comparison is speed. Again, the most popular standard of comparison is the Beyer Speed Figure, which notes how fast a horse ran and takes into account the fluctuating speed of a racing strip.

Figures earned under circumstances similar to the race at hand are the best measures of comparison. Previous figures may indicate the horse’s likely speed today.


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