Analysis of Kentucky Derby 136
by Anthony Stabile
Derby #/Horse (M/L) Jockey (Derby record) Trainer (Derby record)
1. Lookin at Lucky (3-1) Garrett Gomez (0-6) Bob Baffert (3-18)
The two-year-old champ is here!!! Unfortunately though, the dark cloud that has been following him around for the better part of the past six months since his terrible draw and subsequent loss in the B.C. Juvenile turned into a tornado on Wednesday when he drew the rail. Two back in the Rebel, he was as gutsy as they come, overcoming a three month layoff and clipping heels down the backside to win by a head before checking several times and almost going down last out in the Santa Anita Derby. The blinkers he had on his last two starts come off after Baffert, who is no stranger to winning this thing, said they got him too wired up. Interested to see what Gomez does with this draw. A must use in all exotic/multi race wagers but it sure is hard to make him the top pick, especially as the likely chalk.
2. Ice Box (10-1) Jose Lezcano (0-2) Nick Zito (2-22)
On paper, it certainly looks like this race should set up perfectly for him as no less than five in here do their absolute best running on the lead. The pace, of course, figures to be sizzling which will help his matters tremendously. On the other hand, deep closers like him have so much trouble winning these because they usually find trouble at some point of the race while having to navigate through 19 others. Draw isn’t as bad as it would be for some as you would think he’s going to be pretty far back early but I’m sure “Mr. Derby” Nick Zito would have rather drawn a bit better. Liked his Fountain of Youth, loved his Florida Derby. Officially he’s my third pick. Like the favorite, a must use in all exotic/multi race wagers.
3. Noble’s Promise (12-1) Willie Martinez (0-3) Ken McPeek (0-3)
Like Lookin at Lucky, made his first start on conventional dirt in Rebel and got caught on the money, making him 0 for 3 in his rivalry with that one. In the Arkansas Derby, he got bothered at the start and found trouble on first turn, resulting in a sub-par performance that earned him some scrapes and bruises. It was enough to warrant McPeek to initially say he wasn’t going on to the Derby but the owners got their thermometers out and just couldn’t contain the Fever. Pedigree suggests he couldn’t go this far on a bus. Post isn’t great and combined with everything else I tend to think he’s going to have a real tough time of it on Saturday.
4. Super Saver (15-1) Calvin Borel (2-7) Todd Pletcher (0-24)
I know it was just his second start off an almost four month layoff but he HAD to run Line of David down last time in the Ark. Derby…he just had to. But he didn’t and that bothers me a lot. Maybe he needs to have it his own way on the front end to get the job done and that won’t be an option in here. Borel’s presence is puzzling when you consider this colts running style and it will only hurt your win price considering he’s won two of the last three runnings, including last years’ 50-1 upset aboard Mine That Bird. A win in the KJC over the course last fall, however, puts him in the use column, specifically in the bottom slots of my trifectas and superfectas.
5. Line of David (30-1) Rafael Bejarano (0-5) John Sadler (0-1)
Gutted out a gate-to-wire, 17-1 upset of the Ark. Derby by running them off their feet early and grinding it out late. Victory also ran his record to a perfect 3 for 3 with blinkers though his first pair of wins were on the grass. Has been in front every step of the way in those last three but will have plenty of company up front on Saturday. Plus, I hate when a guy like Jon Court, who did a tremendous job last out gets replaced by a higher profile guy like Bejarano because he rides regularly for the barn. Should play a huge role in the first seven furlongs before exiting stage right, when the real running begins.
6. Stately Victor (30-1) Alan Garcia (0-1) Mike Maker (Debut)
Exploded through the stretch of the Blue Grass to win by daylight and thrust himself into the Derby in the matter of moments. Was 1 for 7 going into his last with the lone win coming on turf. Maker took the blinkers off three back but I’m not so sure that was the reason he ran so well because his two prior on turf weren’t that good. Pair of dirt races aren’t that awe inspiring but he’s bred to handle the trip and should be running late. Use in the bottom slots in tris and supers if you can afford it.
7. American Lion (30-1) David Flores (0-9) Eoin Harty (0-2)
Showed tremendous improvement when going synthetic to dirt in the Illinois Derby last out which he won going gate-to-wire. Don’t let the latter part of that sentence bother you because he’s not fast enough to carve it out with some of the other speedsters in here. He should be in the second flight of runners, giving him first crack at them on the turn. David Flores is at his best on this type of horses and I think he’s going to run a big race. The second choice and I’ll be using him in all my exotic/multi race wagers.
8. Dean’s Kitten (50-1) Robby Albarado (0-10) Mike Maker (Debut)
Closed from mid-pack to score in the Lane’s End five weeks ago over the synthetic course at Turfway but really didn’t beat much. Form is littered with a bunch of also-ran performances against lesser and he finished last in a field of five by over 33 lengths in his lone dirt start. Owner could have gotten Fla. Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince in to this if he scratched this guy. He didn’t. Big mistake.
9. Make Music for Me (50-1) Joel Rosario (Debut) Alexis Barba (Debut)
Was able to sneak into the field when Endorsement scratched, giving his trainer the chance to become the first woman to win the Kentucky Derby. Finished sixth in the Blue Grass last out and has won just once in eight tries and that came on the grass. Not for me.
10. Paddy O’Prado (20-1) Kent Desormeaux (3-16) Dale Romans (0-1)
Another who’s eligible for an entry level allowance contest. Looked home-free on the turn in the Blue Grass before getting swamped by Stately Victor in the final eighth. Broke his maiden in grass stakes at Gulfstream two back and lone dirt start in his debut wasn’t that good. Rumored to be training best of all at Churchill the past two weeks but I can’t see that making up for the fact that I think he’s a cut below the best in here.
11. Devil May Care (10-1) John Velazquez (0-11) Todd Pletcher (0-24)
So, I’m expected to take approximately 10-1 on a FILLY that’s adding blinkers before she ran off the board in her first start of the year then shied from the whip in her next start that’s prompting her 0-24 trainer to add blinkers before giving his 0-11 jockey a leg up? I DON’T THINK SO!! Plus, she really wasn’t being considered for this until Eskendereya started coming up lame. There is a reason only three fillies have won the Derby and that’s because it’s nearly impossible. I think she’s a great horse to bet against and get out of the exotics.
12. Conveyance (12-1) Martin Garcia (Debut) Bob Baffert (3-18)
Finally tasted defeat in the Sunland Derby after winning the first four starts of his career. His biggest knock is that he’s been in front for every step of his career, save a quarter mile or so. Like I’ve said a bunch of times already there is no way he’ll be alone on the lead in here. I think he’s a cut below the best and doesn’t appear to want any part of the added distance.
13. Jackson Bend (15-1) Mike Smith (1-16) Nick Zito (2-22)
A great example as to why the graded earnings system in regards to getting into the Derby needs to be changed. Zito has said it best in the weeks leading up to the race: how is the runner-up in the Fla. Derby and Wood Memorial in danger of not getting into the starting gate? If it wasn’t for several defections, he would have been on the outside looking in but luckily for his connections he’s not. Had a great juvenile campaign against mostly Florida breds and has finished second in all three starts this year. With that said, I think he’s reached his potential. Though he was second, he was almost ten lengths behind Eskendereya in each of his last two and several others exiting those races either have or appear to be ready to take the next necessary steps forward. Only horse in the race that sports both a Derby winning trainer and jockey but I don’t think it’ll be enough.
14. Mission Impazible (20-1) Rajiv Maragh (Debut) Todd Pletcher (0-24)
Sat a perfect trip, in my humble opinion, when getting up in the final strides to win the Louisiana Derby. He ran down a horse on the lead that was trying two turns for the first time while third place finisher Drosselmeyer had a terrible go of it the last quarter mile. Still, he has the right running style for this and appears to be moving forward with each start. Finished third over a year ago over the course. Can’t endorse him to win but will probably use him on the bottom end of my exotic wagers like tri and supers.
15. Discreetly Mine (30-1) Javier Castellano (0-3) Todd Pletcher (0-24)
Like his stablemate Mission Impazible, this colt got a perfect set-up two back when setting pedestrian fractions en route to a gate-to-wire score in the Risen Star before failing to fire in the La. Derby when fourth last out. Though he’s bred to run nine miles I tend to think this is beyond his scope. I’m not using him at all.
16. Awesome Act (10-1) Julien Leparoux (0-3) Jeremy Noseda (Debut)
Alright, I’ll stop the suspense. My pick to win Derby 136 is Awesome Act. Looked sensational in the Gotham, his first start on dirt, in nearly four months and back stateside after wintering in Europe. Waited patiently and rated kindly before hitting the front on the turn in the Gotham to win rather easily. In the weeks leading up to his last start in the Wood Memorial, Awesome Act trained poorly and was battling a foot problem yet still finished third despite having some trouble at the start and throwing a shoe soon after leaving the gate. Followed the winner around Aqueduct that day but didn’t kick with him in the stretch. Call me crazy but I think it was partially by design. They needed to get third money to have the earnings to get into the Derby and that’s what they got. Noseda probably feared the dreaded “Eurobounce” and he was right. Now, he’s been training well at Churchill for the better part of the past three weeks and should get an unbelievable set-up. On top in all exotic wagers and used in all multi race wagers.
17. Dublin (12-1) Terry Thompson (Debut) D. Wayne Lukas (4-43)
Like Super Saver, he HAD to run Line of David down last time in the Ark. Derby…he just had to. But he didn’t and that bothers me a lot, especially when you consider that it was his third start of the year and he had to be fitter than Super Saver was. I know he’s getting some buzz this week and Lukas, as usual, is talking up a storm but I just don’t see it. In the end, he’ll turn out to be a one-turn closer and there is nothing wrong with that, as long as his connections see it. They haven’t so far.
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18. Backtalk (50-1) Miguel Mena (Debut) Tom Amoss (0-1)
I can’t even begin to understand the thought process of his connections. This horse has no shot. Got beat a pole in the Ill. Derby and was life and death to win a minor stakes at Delta Downs two back. Delta Downs!!!
19. Homeboykris (50-1) Ramon Dominguez (0-6) Rick Dutrow, Jr. (1-1)
Please see the first sentence for Backtalk. These guys are crazier than those people. He hasn’t run in nine weeks and he beat just one horse in his only two turn start last November in the Remsen at Aqueduct. On a positive note, if you’re heading to Saratoga this summer, one of his owners also owns Sergio’s, easily the best Italian restaurant in the Spa area. Have the Veal ala Lenny and tell them I sent you.
20. Sidney’s Candy (5-1) Joe Talamo (Debut) John Sadler (0-1)
There always, ALWAYS has to be one in the bunch. Look, there is no doubting his talent though I do believe he couldn’t have had things easier on the front end in his last two if they scripted it. But he’s never raced on conventional dirt and he’s drawn terrible. Has plenty of speed, which he’ll need from out there but I truly believe the post will be the straw that breaks the camels back. Big Brown won from out there two years ago but I think this is a deeper field and don’t think this guy is as good as he was. The only horse in the field I wouldn’t try to stop you from betting on, just know that I won’t be using him at all.
The Play
So, I’ve incinerated $453 the past few months on the Derby trail. Hopefully, the Run for the Roses will prove to be my redemption grounds.
Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Saturday, Race 11 at 6:24 p.m.
$50 win 16=$50
$1 tri part 1,2,7,16 with 1,2,7,16 with 1,2,6,7,12,14,16=$60
$1 super part 16 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,6,7,12,14 with 1,2,6,7,12,14=$60