HANDICAPPING A RACE
One of the greatest things about handicapping a horse race is that each race is like its own little puzzle. Rarely are two races alike and the amount of factors and intangibles that make up a horse race are countless. I know it sounds like it’s hopeless to try and handicap a race, but it’s not. In my opinion, four things stand above the rest when handicapping a race. Let’s break them down.
RACE SCENARIO
A horses’ running style can usually be broken down into one of three categories. They are:
| SPEED |
Usually the horse that is the fastest out of the gate that sets the early pace. A speed horse does his best running on the lead |
| FRONT RUNNER |
While front runners don’t necessarily have to be on the lead, they are accustomed to being close to the early pace and do their best running when forwardly placed throughout a race. Front runners are often referred to as stalkers |
| CLOSER |
Closers like to settle towards the back of the pack and benefit from a fast early pace |
| DEEP CLOSER |
These horses like to trail early before making a big late run. Deep closers are often fan favorites because they keep you on the edge of your seat, waiting for that furious finish |
Common sense tells you that horses with speed horses and front runners tend to do better when there is lack of contemporaries in a race while closers and deep closers hope the races they compete in are jam-packed with speed. It doesn’t always work out the way it’s supposed to, but I like nothing better than betting on a horse that looks like he’ll be alone on the lead, because one of the oldest axioms on the racetrack is that speed kills.
One of the best tips I can give you is to pay attention to every race, even if you’re not wagering on it because they can give you helpful hints as to how a track is playing. Track biases are often established throughout the course of the day or a week at the track and can play an important role in the outcome of a race. It can also help you in deciding between a speedster and a closer.
CLASS
The easiest and simplest way to measure a horses’ class is by the company he keeps. The three most popular types of races are:
| CLAIMING |
Often the lowest level. A horse entered in a claiming race is eligible to be purchased, or “claimed” out of the race by any other trainer and owner. Price tags can range from $2,500 at lesser tracks to $100,000 in places like where the racing is best, like New York and California |
| ALLOWANCE |
These races are for up and comers. There are different conditions and levels to allowance races and they are often used as stepping stones to stakes and handicaps. A horse entered in an allowance race cannot be claimed out of the race |
| STAKES/HANDICAPS |
The best of the best. These races usually carry the highest purse money a track has to offer as well as prestige. Grade 1 stakes are for the elite, followed by Grade 2, Grade 3 and listed. The grading system not only determines a horses’ on-track status but plays a major role in the breeding business as well, especially in determining the value of a filly or mare who’s becoming a broodmare, or dam |
CURRENT FORM
Horses that have been performing well, or are “in form” as railbirds will say, win a majority of the races contested across the land each and every day. Sometimes, a horse with terrible recent efforts will drop in class and win (we’ll get to that in a minute) but it’s far from the norm.
Determining if a horse is in form is far simpler than you would think. Look to see that he’s been competitive in his races and is relatively competing against horses in his class. Of course, there will be exceptions to these rules. Horses have to climb through the ranks in order to get to the top of the sport but we’re speaking generally.
Also, don’t think a horse has to be first or second to be competitive. Check out how many lengths a horse is getting beat at a certain level. Maybe he had a rough trip in his last start, or the pace scenario wasn’t to his liking. Those are the two most popular excuses a horse has when exiting a race he didn’t run that well in or as well as you think he should.
APPEARANCE
One of my favorite places at a racetrack, especially at places like Belmont Park and Monmouth Park, is the paddock area. When I’m in the paddock area, I feel like I’m at the track and love to take in the beauty that often surrounds these areas. From a handicapping and wagering standpoint, how a horse looks and acts in the paddock before the race is often a sign as to how he’ll perform on the track.
I look for horses that have a bounce in their step; their head held high and are behaving. You want your horse to be on his toes yet not excited to a point where he’s getting bothered and worked up to a point that he’s leaving his race behind.
While some would argue that an aggressive horse that’s giving his groom fits in the paddock is geared up for a big effort, I feel it’s as counterproductive as it gets.
Once out of the paddock and on the track, try and see how your horse is warming up. Often they are accompanied by a pony when first walking onto a track but most jockeys will break away and jog or gallop a horse a bit before a race. Again, look for a horse that’s on his toes, with his neck arched that’s getting over the track smoothly. The last thing you want to do is wager your money on a horse that’s sullen and dragging’ his feet around the oval.
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